![]() ![]() These problems in governance have broader impacts in terms of acute corruption, state-driven barriers to effective development, and “crony capitalism.” Ironically, given Western perspectives, it is the Arab monarchies and theocracy in Iran that have done the most – if still far too little – to adapt and meet the other needs of their population. Virtually all regional states have serious problems with governance, rule of law, security, and finding a balance between religion and secularism.Each state in the region has a different mix of civil problems and successes, but the overall pattern of events is driven by a mix of broad and enduring challenges in governance, demographics, economics, religion, and social change: This overall pattern is only partly driven by the kind of conflicts that now get most media and policy attention. The Broader and Enduring Challenges to Stability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 1965-2050 However, it will be the overall pattern of events, and not the event of the day, that will dominate the region in 2016 and in the future. Tomorrow’s crisis and headlines – like today’s – will focus on a snapshot of one element of this pattern. In reality, the Middle East, North Africa, and much of the Islamic world are caught up in an interlocking pattern of crises that has become steadily more serious over time, and that now seems almost certain play out over at least the next decade. Moreover, once it is taken out of its historical context and the overall pattern of events, it somehow seems new and dramatic – rather than part of a much broader pattern that has taken decades to emerge and where one set of tensions and conflicts cannot be separated from another. Most recently, it is the fact that Saudi Arabia has clashed with Iran.Īs long as each crisis is seen individually, and in the context of the current headlines, that one crisis seems to dominate events. Sometimes the focus is Yemen, other times it is ISIS, Assad, or terrorism outside the region. ![]() Much of the news reporting and analysis of the Middle East seems to lurch from one crisis to another on the basis of whatever crisis has the most visibility on a given day. ![]()
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